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Cowichan Valley Realtor

Market Information

August 1, 2019

The BC day long weekend is here; let’s hope we can all stay dry waiting for the sun on Saturday.

There were 77 single-family homes sold in the valley for the month of July, down from the 84 that sold during the same period last year; that’s an 8% decrease and also down from the 85 that sold in June of this year. Although keep in mind that the sales numbers are right on track with the 10-year average of about 77.6 in July and well above the 53 homes that sold in July of 2012.

The annual rolling sales numbers of 716 sales in our valley over the past 12 months represented a strong 23% decrease from the 928 homes that sold in the 12 months ending on July 31st of last year.

The supply of single-family homes on the market in the valley is growing slowly and is still low by historical standards. At the end of July 2018, there were 226 homes for sale in the valley. Yesterday, that number was up slightly to 233, which represents a 3-month supply in our marketplace. It’s worth keeping in mind that a “balanced market” has approximately a 5-month supply. The 10-year average for the number of homes on the market at the end of July is 414.4 and in 2012 that was at a high of 615.

In July of 2012, the “list-to-sell” ratio was just 38%. That means that out of 100 single-family listings on the MLS system, only 38 would sell. Last month, that number was still very strong at 81%, and for the calendar year that ended yesterday, it was at 70%.

As to prices, the average sale price for single-family homes in the valley over the last 12 months was $521,294, up 6% from the $492,542 at the end of July 2018. Keep in mind that it’s difficult to be accurate with averages to a specific product in a small market due to the lack of sales volume. The lower end of the market, homes priced in the $300,000-$600,000 range, represents approximately 65% of the sales volume this year and has had by far the greatest increase.

Another, probably more accurate indicator of what prices have done over the last year comes from figures in the MLS Home Price Index; that’s a benchmark for Realtors of a group of home sales. That gauge shows single-family homes in the Cowichan Valley going from $463,600 in July 2018 to $471,400 in July of this year; that’s a 1.68% gain and down slightly from a peak in April at $479,300.

At this point, there is still upward pressure on prices under the $600,000 range, especially in first time buyer homes and retirement homes, but over $600,000 in general the market becomes more balanced. After $700,000 it is shifting to a buyers’ market and over $800,000 for the most part has shifted to a buyers market with a 16.5 month supply of homes on the market in the Cowichan Valley as of today.

I hope you have a great, safe, and enjoyable long weekend, and that you take every opportunity to truly enjoy the rest of the summer in our incredible valley.

Provincial update

BC Home Sales Trend Lower in June

Vancouver, BC – July 15, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,960 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, a decline of 11.8 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $687,584, a decline of 4 per cent from June 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.8 billion, a 15.3 per cent decline from the same month last year.

“BC home sales moderated lower in June after a stronger showing in May,” said BCREA Deputy Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While mortgage rates offered by lenders have moved below 3 per cent, a static qualifying rate has limited the impact of the lower cost of borrowing.”

Total MLS® residential active listings were up 18.6 per cent to 42,625 units compared to the same month last year and were essentially flat on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to May.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.4 per cent to $24.5 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales decreased 18.7 per cent to 35,679 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 5.8 per cent to $688,080..

Here is a link to this month’s Graph Stats for the Cowichan Valley, courtesy of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board: Cowichan Valley Graph Stats.

I hope you find this current market information informative. If you have any questions about the market please feel free to contact me anytime.

Thinking of selling? Please feel free to contact me for advice on preparing your home for the market. What money should you spend if any? When is the best time to list? I am happy to consult with you anytime even if you are not planning on selling for some time.

I would love to hear from you. Email me at ken@kenneal.com or Like me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/kennealduncan.