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Cowichan Valley Realtor

Market Information

June 1, 2019

The Cowichan Valley Real Estate market was marginally stronger in May than in April, but slowed down dramatically in comparison to the same months in both 2016 and 2017.

There were 63 single-family-home sales in the valley last month in comparison to the 61 sold in April. That number is down 36% from the 99 sales recorded in May of last year and substantially down from the record breaking 137 sales in May of 2016. Overall sales numbers are also down from the 10-year average of 86 sales in May. In the past 12 months, we’ve seen 722 total sales, compared to 948 in the 12-month period before that.

The average single-family-home in the Cowichan Valley sold for $549,439 last month in comparison to $513,113 in the same month last year; that’s a 7% increase. Another more accurate indicator of what prices have done over the last year comes from figures in the MLS Home Price Index which is a benchmark for Realtors in a group of home sales. That gauge shows single-family homes in the Cowichan Valley going from $458,200 in April 2018 to $480,700 in April of this year; that’s a 4.9 % gain. Considering the average on the Victoria Real Estate Board went down 3.4% in the same period, we are doing pretty well.

With all of the new changes to mortgage qualification rules, rising interest rates, taxes on foreign buyers in larger cities and other policy changes, change is definitely well under way in the Cowichan Valley as well. At this time, overall supply continues to be on the seller's side in the Cowichan Valley, with 237 active listings on the market at the end of May. Note that in 2013 that number was 575 and in 2017 it was as low as 151. Last year at the end of May there were 200 single-family homes on the market.

While the market is considered undersupplied overall with a 3.76 month supply, the market is mainly undersupplied in the lower end of the market under $600,000. The higher end is experiencing a very different market; for example, there are presently 124 active single-family listings over $800,000 in the Cowichan Valley and just 33 properties have been sold year to date; that equals almost a 19 month supply! Compare that to the 183 homes available under $600,000 and 234 sold year to date; that is less than a 4 month supply. Condos, patio homes, town houses, duplexes, and ranchers are still very much undersupplied and in high demand.

The homes that sold last month had been on the market an average of just 29 days, compared to 25 days in May of last year. Note that in 2010 that number was as high as 65.

I wish you all the best over the summer months and that you enjoy them to the fullest with your family and friends. Remember, you only have so many summers in a lifetime.

Provincial update

Affordability Continues to Weigh on Housing Demand

Vancouver, BC – May 14, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,652 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, a decline of 18.9 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $685,304, a decline of 6.2 per cent from April 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.6 billion, a 23.9 per cent decline from the same month last year.

“BC home sales were essentially unchanged from March on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir. “Prospective home buyers continue to grapple with the decline in their purchasing power caused by federal government changes to mortgage policy.”

Total MLS® residential active listings increased 33.6 per cent to 38,672 units compared to the same month last year. The ratio of sales to active residential listings declined from 28.4 per cent to 17.2 per cent over the same period.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 29.8 per cent to $13.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales decreased 24.5 per cent to 20,479 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 7 per cent to $680,671.

Here is a link to this month’s Graph Stats for the Cowichan Valley, courtesy of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board: Cowichan Valley Graph Stats.

I hope you find this current market information informative. If you have any questions about the market please feel free to contact me anytime.

Thinking of selling? Please feel free to contact me for advice on preparing your home for the market. What money should you spend if any? When is the best time to list? I am happy to consult with you anytime even if you are not planning on selling for some time.

I would love to hear from you. Email me at ken@kenneal.com or Like me on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/kennealduncan.