February 1, 2020
January sales were down in the valley and there is no question that the white winter wonderland, record rainfalls, and the looming forestry job action were all contributing factors.
The Cowichan Valley had 26 single-family home sales in the last month, which was 26% lower than the 35 in January of 2019, and down from the 41 in December 2019. For reference, the 10-year average for sales in January is 34.7 and the highest sales volume we have seen in January over the last decade was 48 in 2018.
The annual rolling sales numbers continue to work their way back to what they were before the market boom of 2015-2018. There were 678 sales in our valley over the past 12 months representing an 18% decrease in comparison to the 823 sales in the 12 months ending in January of last year.
Single-family home prices in January were up to $595,348; that’s 11% higher than they finished off last January at $534,780, keep in mind that is only using 26 sales. Over the 12 months, the average single-family home in the Cowichan Valley sold for $539,644, up 6% from $509,279 in the previous 12 months. For a more accurate look, the benchmark sale price for single-family homes in the Cowichan Valley finished the month of December at $484,700, up 5.5% from $459,300 at the end of December 2018.
On January 31st of last year, there were 119 single-family homes for sale in the Cowichan Valley. Yesterday, that number was still only 135 and that is the highest we have seen in 4 years. The 10-year average for homes on the market at the end of January is 251.
Overall, January showed balanced market conditions with a 5.19 month-supply of homes on the market. For reference, a balanced market is considered a 4-5 month-supply.
If you’re thinking of selling this year, now is the time before the market fills up with new spring inventory. People often ask me, “When is the best time of year to sell?” The answer is very simple; it’s when the supply is low and that means NOW.
Housing Markets Flat in 2019 After Strong Second Half
Vancouver, BC – January 13, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 77,331 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2019, a decline of 1.5 per cent from the 78,516 units sold in 2018. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $700,460, a decline of 1.6 per cent from $711,564 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $54.2 billion, a 3 per cent decline from 2018.
“Housing markets across the province staged a strong recovery in the second half of 2019,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “This sets up 2020 to be a much more typical year than what markets have experienced recently.”
A total of 5,218 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded across the province in December, up 48.9 per cent from December 2018. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $755,165, an increase of 8.7 per cent from December 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $3.9 billion, a 61.8 per cent increase year-over-year.Total active residential listings were down 10.6 per cent to 24,691 units in December. Total inventory of homes for sale have declined more than 10 per cent on a year-over-year basis for two straight months.
BCREA 2020 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update
Vancouver, BC – January 23, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to increase 10.3 per cent to 85,290 units this year, after recording 77,349 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 6.3 per cent to 90,700 units in 2021.
“The outlook for home sales in 2020 is considerably brighter than the past two years,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “Momentum carried through from the end of 2019 to 2020 will put the housing market on more solid footing, aided by low interest rates and an improving economy.”
While demand is recovering, the supply of homes for sale has not managed to keep pace. New listings activity did not materially increase during the downturn in home sales, and total inventory did not accumulate to the same extent as in prior slowdowns. As a result, market conditions around the province are tightening and home prices will likely face upward pressure as demand continues to firm. In 2020, we expect the MLS® average price will rise 4.8 per cent to $734,000.
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 6 per cent to $50.23 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 3.9 per cent lower at 72,106 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 2.2 per cent year-to date at $696,574.
Here is a link to this month’s Graph Stats for the Cowichan Valley, courtesy of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board: Cowichan Valley Graph Stats.
I hope you find this current market information informative. If you have any questions about the market please feel free to contact me anytime.
Thinking of selling? Please feel free to contact me for advice on preparing your home for the market. What money should you spend if any? When is the best time to list? I am happy to consult with you anytime even if you are not planning on selling for some time.
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