October 1, 2019
Traditionally, September is a slower month for single-family home sales and this year we followed that trend. There were 58 single-family homes sold in the Cowichan Valley in September, down from the 72 sales we saw in August but, one more than the 57 sales we saw in September of last year. The ten-year average for sales in September comes in at 59, and the highest September sales we have seen in the last 10 years was in 2016 when we had 87.
Over the past 12 months, we’ve have had 697 total sales, compared with 891 in the 12-month period before that; that's a significant drop of 22% less sales.
The average sale price for single-family homes in the valley over the last 12 months was just over $532,000; that is a 7% year-over-year increase. Another more accurate tool, the benchmark price from the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board’s Home Price Index, shows that from August 2018 to August 2019, sale prices in the Cowichan Valley were up 4% to $474,000.
There were still only 201 homes on the market in the Cowichan Valley yesterday, the exact same as on the same day last year. At this point we are still running substantially lower than the 10-year average of 368 homes on the market. The low inventory is continuing to put pressure on the market, particularly in the entry level markets: condominiums, duplexes, town houses, and ranchers. Home prices in the lower end market, depending on product, are stable to increasing year over year, while the higher end market above $800,000 has been slow and seeing price corrections with some product. There has never been a better time in my career to move from a house under $600,000 to a house over $800,000.
Our market has certainly slowed down over the last year but nowhere near the degree of the slow-down in the lower mainland. There now seems to be some leveling off in the province and signs of stability in August are very positive. I have added a couple provincial updates below and the forecast for 2020 is also positive with province wide sales and volume increases.
I hope you have enjoyed the last few days of sunshine in September, I think our neighbors east of us shoveling snow right now would love to be here. We are so fortunate to live in paradise.
Housing Demand Continues to Recover in August
Vancouver, BC – September 12, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,093 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, an increase of 4.9 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $685,575, an increase of 2.6 per cent from August 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.86 billion, a 7.6 per cent increase from the same month last year.
BC home sales continue to recover from a policy-driven downturn,” said BCREA Deputy Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. Home sales have been rising through the spring and summer, but still remain well below pre-B20 stress test levels."
MLS® residential active listings in the province were up 10 per cent from August 2018 to 40,098 units and were essentially flat compared to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remained in a balanced range with a sales-to-active listings ratio of about 18 per cent.
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 16 per cent to $34.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 12.2 per cent lower at 50,806 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 4.4 per cent year-to-date at $686,303.
BCREA 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update
Vancouver, BC – September 5, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 5 per cent to about 75,000 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 11 per cent to 82,700 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.
“BC markets are showing signs of recovery after nearly a year and a half of policy-induced declines,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Deputy Chief Economist. “We expect that recovery to continue into next year, with home sales normalizing around long-term averages.”
A recovery in home sales has slowed the accumulation of resale inventory, with active listings still well short of the previous peak in 2012. That leaves market conditions at the provincial level essentially balanced with little upward pressure on prices. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2.4 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3 per cent to $718,000 in 2020.
Here is a link to this month’s Graph Stats for the Cowichan Valley, courtesy of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board: Cowichan Valley Graph Stats.
I hope you find this current market information informative. If you have any questions about the market please feel free to contact me anytime.
Thinking of selling? Please feel free to contact me for advice on preparing your home for the market. What money should you spend if any? When is the best time to list? I am happy to consult with you anytime even if you are not planning on selling for some time.
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